| I used to think that there were experts and geniuses out there who knew what was |
| going to happen in the markets. I thought that these traders and market gurus |
| were successful because they had figured out how to predict the markets. Of |
| course, the obvious question is that if they were such good traders, and if they |
| knew where the market was going, why were they teaching trading techniques, |
| selling strategies and indicators, and writing newsletters? Why weren’t they rich? |
| NO ONE KNOWS WHERE THE MARKET IS GOING |
| It took me a long time to figure out that no one really understands why the market |
| does what it does or where it’s going. It’s a delusion to think that you or any one |
| else can know where the market is going. |
| I have sat through hundreds of hours of seminars in which the presenter made it |
| going. Either they were deluded or they were putting us on. I have seen many |
| complex Fibonacci measuring methods for determining how high or low the |
| market would move, how much a market would retrace its latest big move, and |
| when to buy or sell based on this analysis. None has ever made consistent money |
| for me. |
| NO ONE KNOWS WHEN THE MARKET WILL MOVE |
| It also has taken me a long time to understand that no one knows when the |
| market will move. There are many individuals who write newsletters and/or |
| books, or teach seminars, who will tell you that they know when the market will |
| move. |
| Most Elliott Wave practitioners, cycle experts, or Fibonacci time traders will try to |
| predict when the market will move, presumably in the direction they have also |
| predicted. I personally have not been able to figure out how to know when the |
| market is going to move. And you know what? When I tried to predict, I was |
| usually wrong, and I invariably missed the big move I was anticipating, because “it |
| wasn’t time.” |
| It was when I finally concluded that I would never be able to predict when the |
| market will move that I started to be more successful in my trading. My |
| frustration level declined dramatically, and I was at peace knowing that it was OK |
| not to be able to predict or understand the markets. |